Renewable Electric Power Takes Off
Renewable Energy From Solar, Wind and Geothermal Sources are Gaining Popularity Worldwide
Renewable electric power is beginning to soar. The current surge of activity, which has been accelerating over the last few years, is driven by several factors: high fuel prices; ongoing improvements in renewable power technologies; and increasing political support, which grows out of concern about energy security and climate change.
Although renewable power is still generally more expensive than electricity generated from fossil fuels, the cost of renewables has declined significantly. Moreover, energy investment decisions are increasingly made not solely on an economic basis, but with environmental and sociopolitical considerations factored in as well.
It’s taken a long time to get here. Three decades and $30 billion of research funded by the United States and other industrial countries have gone into renewables, along with billions more from the private sector. The effort has been marked by booms-and-busts, ups-and-downs in research funding, disappointment and long dry periods. But after languishing for many years on the fringe, renewable power is now headed into the mainstream.
Renewable power technologies generate electricity using natural regenerating resources such as sunlight, wind and waves. Traditional renewable power technologies include hydro, geothermal and biomass. Familiar to most people, hydro power involves the use of dams and running water to drive electric turbines.
Geothermal systems capture steam and hot water in geologic reservoirs to generate electricity. Biomass plants burn forest products and agricultural residues to produce steam to accomplish the same. These traditional renewable power technologies account for more than 90 percent of global renewable power capacity and are growing at a modest pace.
The menu is being widened with more exotic technologies. Concentrated solar power plants use mirrors to focus sunlight and boil a fluid to produce steam to drive a turbine. Enhanced geothermal systems produce electricity with steam made from water that is injected into the earth and heated by contact with hot rocks. Biomass gasification plants turn biomass into a gas that can be used in a combined-cycle generator. These technologies have great potential, but are still developmental.
Wind turbines and solar photovoltaic (PV) cells occupy the middle ground between the traditional renewable power sources of today and the promising technologies of tomorrow. Although both wind and solar PV have been commercially available for decades, these technologies have matured over the last thirty years due to ongoing research and development.
The big winner so far is wind. Global wind power capacity has tripled since 2000 and reached nearly 75 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2006. This is still small-less than two percent of total world capacity-but it is enough to meet the annual electric needs of nearly 20 million U.S. households.
Germany, the United States, Spain, India and Denmark have the largest installed wind base, but in 2006, North America saw the fastest growth. In the U.S., nearly 3 GW of new wind turbines were installed last year, with overall wind capacity breaking 10 GW along the way. U.S. wind growth was fueled by a federal tax credits and state renewable portfolio standard programs, which require utilities to purchase a certain percentage of their power from renewable sources.
At the same time, continuing technological advances are being made in the design and operations of windmills.
Asia is emerging as a center of growth for both wind energy use and wind turbine manufacturing capacity. Over 3 GW of new capacity was installed in Asia in 2006, the bulk in China and India. This came as a result of policies supporting renewables, such as China’s new Renewable Energy Law, which requires 5 percent of China’s electric capacity to be renewables-based by 2010. India is the world’s fourth-largest wind power market, thanks to sustained government support for the sector.
Solar PV is hot, too. It works by converting sunlight directly into electricity using semiconducting materials such as polysilicon. Global solar PV installations have grown by an average annual rate of 35 percent over the last five years. Germany, Japan and the U.S. are the leaders in solar PV use, combining to account for 85 percent of the global installed base of more than 6 GW. PV installations in the U.S. grew by over 20 percent last year due to the expansion of federal and state support.
Solar PV is also on the rise in Asia, particularly in China, which is positioned to emerge as one of the world’s largest solar PV manufacturers and consumers over the next several years.
The surge in wind and solar PV over the last several years is creating its own obstacles. The wind industry is currently struggling with turbine component shortages. These shortages have driven up the installed cost of wind turbines from as low as $1,100 per kilowatt a few years ago to $1,500 or higher today-if you can find them.
Polysilicon demand from PV manufacturers is now greater than demand from the semiconductor business, and there is simply not enough silicon production capacity today to meet these twin sources of demand.
This has created a shortage and driven up prices. Polysilicon prices exceeded $100 per kilogram in 2006, up from $35 per kilogram a few years ago. These shortages are expected to persist until 2008, when new wind turbine component and silicon manufacturing capacity comes on line. In the meantime, technologists are seeking to find ingenious ways to innovate around these shortages.
The rapid growth in renewable power has been accompanied by an associated increase in investment. According to New Energy Finance, investment in clean energy reached $70 billion in 2006, up from $50 billion in 2005. Venture capitalists are now focusing on this sector as well. According to the Cleantech Venture Network, the North American venture capital community invested $758 million in wind and solar startups in 2006, a threefold increase from 2005.
Policy uncertainty and fossil fuel prices are among the biggest threats to renewable power in the short and medium terms. Renewable power options have yet to achieve cost parity with fossil fuel sources, although some wind projects are competitive today in favorable sites with abundant wind resources and tax incentives.
Solar PV still has a way to go, with current costs of PV-generated power approximately five times those of electricity from a natural gas plant. As a result, wind and solar must rely upon robust and stable government supports to fuel industry growth. But renewable power policies can be just as intermittent as the wind and sun themselves.
Although recent events have spurred strong support for incentives and renewable power targets, declining fossil fuel prices could make such policies less tenable. Especially important is what happens to natural gas prices and whether and when a price is put on carbon emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants.
When considering the future prospects for renewables, perspective is important. Despite their recent rapid growth, wind and solar together account for just two percent of global power generation capacity. Even with a continuation of the strong growth seen in recent years, wind and solar are likely to account for less than five percent of global capacity a decade from now.
Moreover, there are questions as to how renewables will interface with existing technologies and infrastructure.
But by the middle of the next decade, as wind and solar PV continue to grow-and as concentrated solar power, advanced biomass and geothermal technologies become increasingly competitive-renewables can begin to make a more significant impact in global power markets. Indeed, it is likely that renewable power will continue to grow at a rapid rate, given the prospect for continued technology improvements and the likelihood that climate change and energy security will remain important concerns.
Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA, received the Pulitzer Prize for "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power" and the United States Energy Award for lifelong achievements in energy and the promotion of international understanding. Visit CERA at http://cera.ecnext.com.
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China Taking the Lead In Renewable Energy
China Makes Large Investments into Renewable Energy for Its Future
There is little doubt that China is a country coming into its own. With a massive population, the country is starting to wake up and grow economically. Of course, it needs power to make that happen.
China is front and center when the future of our planet is discussed. The country may still be communist from a political perspective, but it has taken a strong capitalist approach to economic matters. In fact, it is only a matter of time till the "communist" label is dropped as a whole. While China is experiencing massive economic growth, many see future problems.
China is currently the fourth biggest economy in the world. Depending on the pace at which its economy continues to grow, it should overtake the United States sometime in the 2020s. While economic competitiveness will make for an interesting world, the growth could result in more military conflicts. Why? It is all about energy.
China has relatively few natural energy resources in comparison to its power needs. As it grows economically, it is going to need more and more oil, natural gas and so on. At the same time, these resources are being depleted around the world. The admittedly foggy estimates reveal we may have 60 to 80 years of oil and natural gas left. In fact, peak oil production is occurring now in 2007. After this year, the amount of oil being pumped around the world will start to drop and it will not recover. This lack of resources is surely going to be the basis of political, economic and military conflict with China, or is it?
China appears to realize it has a problem on the energy front. It has aggressively been looking into renewable energy. From hydropower projects like the Three Gorges Dam to solar and wind power, the country has taken an aggressive planning stance. Now comes news China will invest 5.8 BILLION dollars in alternative energy platforms. China is primarily focusing on wind and hydropower projects.
When compared to the United States, the efforts of China are amazing. We often view China as a country "catching up"to the rest of the world. With the large investment in renewable energy, it is clear that China is now leading in the energy arena instead of following. Perhaps those future conflicts will not come to be.
Rick Chapo is with SolarCompanies.com - a directory of solar energy companies.
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Alternative Energy, The Dream And The Reality
Promising Sources of Alternative Energy Include Solar Photovoltaics, Wind Power, Ethanol Fuel and Coal Gasification
Oil prices have recently surpassed $70 per barrel for the first time in history. With gas prices in the US hovering at $3 per gallon, many citizens are reevaluating their lives. Each day more Americans ask questions such as: Can I drive this big pickup or afford a car at all? What will I do this coming winter about my increasing utility bills?
These and other questions drive us to pay more attention to conflicts in the Middle East, Venezuela and elsewhere.
The first installment of this article will deal with the major sources of alternative energy: solar, ethanol, coal gasification and wind power. The second installment will discuss the potential financial benefits of investing in this growing segment of our economy.
Solar Energy
Solar energy breaks down into passive and active solar
Passive is typically dealt with in the architecture phase of a building. Basically, passive solar is about orienting a building and constructing it with materials and techniques that take advantage of the sun’s lighting and heating abilities when it is dark and cold and shading it when temperatures are hotter.
Active solar involves installing solar collectors that capture the sun’s heat and transferring it to a liquid for household or commercial hot water applications.
The newer form of active solar utilizes photovoltaic cells similar to semiconductors that convert the sun’s energy to electricity. In simple terms, the solar energy knocks electrons loose from their atoms allowing them to flow through the material to form electricity.
Photovoltaic applications have been limited to low power devices like calculators or to remote locations where the electrical grid was not available. This is changing as the number of photovoltaic cells being manufactured increases, which has been lowering the costs per unit each year by 3 to 5%. At the same time, technology has been making them more efficient. The combination of these two factors has lowered the cost of producing a watt of electricity from $7.50 in 1990 to $4.00 in 2005 with the payback on installing a system coming down to 5 to 10 years.
Benefits of solar energy include the fact that it is free and has little maintenance once it is installed. When combined with lower costs and more efficient technology solar is sure to play an important role in the future.
Ethanol
No discussion of ethanol can take place without including the amazing success of Brazil in eliminating its dependence on imported oil from the Middle East. Brazil produces enough ethanol from sugar cane to provide 40% of its demand for gas. All fuel sold in Brazil is at least 25% ethanol.
In the US the primary source of ethanol is from corn. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 mandates that production of ethanol in the US will double to 7.5 billion gallons over the next 5 years. Projections are that private industry will exceed this level with no government intervention.
Ethanol is not without its challenges. It cannot be transported in pipelines and is currently moved in railcars and barges. When used in higher concentrations, which can be as high as 85% it can damage fuel tanks and filters, can cause improper readings on fuel gauges and can corrode iron parts and electrical fuel pumps. It also has problems with high levels of evaporation and only provides 66% of the energy content of gas.
With that said, in the short-term ethanol is one of the only solutions we have to the fact that transportation uses 67% of our nation’s petroleum consumption.
Coal Gasification
The 600 traditional coal burning power plants in the US produce 50% of the electricity that we use to run our country. Unfortunately, coal pollutes when it is mined, transported, stored and burned. Using current methods, coal is pulverized and burned to heat up boilers to produce steam that spins turbines that turn generators that produce electricity. This process is the primary cause of global warming, acid rain and a number of other problems.
In coal gasification the coal is heated to 2000 degrees in a closed environment with steam and a limited amount of oxygen so that it breaks down to its component parts without burning.
A form of natural gas is created that can be burned more cleanly. One of the component parts is carbon dioxide, the primary culprit in the pollution of our world, but it can be captured and pumped underground to revive oil fields or stored underground in caverns.
Currently there are several power plants in the US using this new technology known as IGCC, one in Indiana, one in North Dakota and a more modern one in Tampa, Florida. With 300 years worth of coal in existence, this may be the most important current technological advance on our planet.
Wind Power
Wind power currently provides less than 1% of the worldwide electricity capacity. But this source of renewable energy has tremendous potential with the cost to generate it having gone down by 80% over the last 15 years due to technological advances. It is abundant, renewable and clean and is currently growing by 38% per year in the US, faster than any other form of energy generation. The highest levels of wind are found at high altitudes where average wind velocities of 100 mph are not uncommon. But places where winds average over 12.5 mph are economically viable. The best locations are on cliffs or on the ridges of mountains where changes in ground elevation cause an increase in wind speed. The problem with wind is its inability to gear up to meet heavy load demand and the necessity to have backup power production capacity from other sources.
Conclusion
These four sources of energy production are the major alternatives we have today to eliminate our nation’s addiction to oil. As newer technologies such as fuel cells become more practical we should see less dependence on fossil fuels like oil and coal that can provide future generations with clean renewable energy.
Allen Goldstone is a Colorado based consultant who specializes in mergers & acquisitions and corporate turnarounds. You can contact Allen at Alleng123@gmail.com
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